Latest Grand National Thoughts – 18 days before the race

For many years, we knew what we were getting with the Grand National – spills, thrills and only a handful of horses still in contention over the closing stages. A succession of safety-driven changes has seen Aintree’s showcase morph into a race where everything is now smaller: the fences, the number of runners, and the distance. Many would argue the enjoyment is smaller too, but we need to work with what we have now, not yesteryear.

It remains a race for specialists, but it’s the distance and class of horse running rather than the fences that make the race stand out in 2026.

We’re looking for classy horses that stay marathon trips. Ideally, they should be also be ahead of the handicapper and comfortable in big fields. An ability to jump well is useful but not essential – just watch I Am Maximus (1st and 2nd in the last two renewals) over a fence if you need convincing.

Classy, young Grade 1 horses were often kept away from the race, and older marathon-handicappers held sway until recent years.

It’s revealing that no horse aged 10 or over has won in the last ten renewals, but in the previous ten, there were seven double-digit winners - that shows you how much the race has changed.

With bookmakers and Betfair offering extended place markets, I’ve found the best approach is to back between 6 and 8 horses. Some in the win market, some in the place markets and some each-way, i.e. in both!

Let’s start with the horses to consider in the win-only market. These are horses that fit the boom-or-bust scenario. Typically, they won’t have run in the race before and will have something to prove – nearly always stamina – BUT they will be young, progressive and potentially well ahead of their handicap marks. This year, I’m looking at two of JP’s horses: Jagwar and Oscars Brother, and Joseph O’Brien’s dark horse, Jordans. As seven and eight-year-olds, they are the right age to win a modern Grand National, and look potentially well-treated. However, stamina is taken on trust, as is their ability to handle a 34-runner field over unfamiliar fences.

Jagwar has yet to have his sights raised beyond Grade 3 company, but he was considered for the Ryanair Chase at the festival, and looks set to compete in higher-graded races next season. His jumping isn’t the most natural, but that hasn’t stopped I Am Maximus from clearing today’s easier fences. He reminds me of Rule The World, who won the race for Mouse Morris ten years ago. He finished runner-up seven times in his most recent 13 races prior to winning, and appeared tripless. Sometimes a marathon trip is the key to horses like that.

Oscars Brother has the class box ticked, and has been staying on very well at the end of his races, so it’s possible that he could unlock further improvement over 4m 2f.

I put up Jordans at 66/1 in my Racing Post column last year because I was told that his entire season would be geared towards one day. His chance rests on one piece of form, but that form was at this meeting last year, and there are few better trainers than JOB at targeting one for the biggest races. The guy has won two Melbourne Cups for goodness’ sake!

Horses to consider for place-only betting are those rock-solid types who have been there and got the T-shirt. I’m thinking I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West. Second and third last year. They clearly have what it takes, but as ten-year-olds, they are vulnerable to horses with a little more speed and with something up their sleeve in terms of their handicap marks. Nick Rockett would normally be in this list too, but I’m put off by his interrupted prep.

The final category is horses to consider for each-way betting. There is only one this year, Iroko – my first bet on the race, placed the day after last year’s race. He’s young enough to have the improvement needed to win the race, and has already proven he’s up to the demands of the race with last year’s excellent 4th-place finish. A year older, stronger and more street-wise, he is another who has had his season geared to the race. His Cheltenham disappointment is explained by a bad post-race scope. Following a course of antibiotics, it’s all systems go for Aintree.

Of the others prominent in the betting, I can see Panic Attack, Captain Cody and Favori De Champdou running nice races without quite being good enough, but I have stamina doubts over Johnnywho, Monty’s Star, Stellar Story, Spillane’s Tower, Gorgeous Tom, Perceval Legallois and Banbridge.

Nick Rockett’s prep puts me off, and it’s the same story for Haiti Couleurs, who has had too many hard races this season for my liking.

To summarise, my strategy this year is to cover the following horses:

Win only: Jagwar, Oscars Brother and Jordans.

Place only markets: I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West.

Each-way: Iroko.