It’s time we spoke about the Turners

I like to price up all the Grade 1 Cheltenham races well in advance to facilitate decisions on which horses to back and lay in the ante-post markets. Part of that process is to list all the likely runners. Using the latest Betfair prices, such a list typically gives a betting percentage around 95% this time of year, i.e. a slightly under-round market. A few horses have yet to emerge and throw their hats into the ring, so there’s a little room for them.

This year, one market stands out as being very underdeveloped. The Turners. The median number of runners in the race is 11 or 12. If we take the shortest-priced 16 runners (let alone the standard 11 or 12), Betfair prices are currently below 80%. In other words, there must be some great value out there, as prices will inevitably tighten significantly for several of the runners. Our job is to find the right ones and get involved now – while the going’s good.

No Drama This End is the rightful favourite at around 6.0. His peak RPR is 149. To put that in perspective, the median RPR figures of the first three home in a Turners are 159/154/149. In other words, he has already run to a figure good enough to finish 3rd in a typical renewal and improvement is expected in March. He’s one of the few horses that you’d hang on your hat on as a definite runner, along with Act of Innocence and Shuttle Diplomacy, perhaps?

Gordon Elliott has hinted at stepping Sklyight Hustle up in trip after his fortuitous Gr1 win over 2 miles, and that looks a good move to me as Talk The Talk looked to have too much speed for him before falling at the last that day. He’s worth backing at around 13.0 and taking the chance that he runs here. Equally, Paddy’s 10/1 NRNB looks solid for the more risk-averse.

The same trainer also has Ballyfad, who is entered on Sunday at the DRF. I think he will prove best at the Turners trip, and Elliott will be keen to keep both horses away from the Supreme, where he already has his golden boy, El Cairos. I expect a good run from Ballyfad at Leopardstown, and he’s another worth adding now at William Hill’s 14/1.

JP’s Mighty Park could well run in the Turners too, but I’m not in a hurry to get involved just yet until his target becomes clearer – JP does love a Supreme runner after all, and there’s a hefty tax if you take the NRNB price, 5/1.

King Rasko Grey and Doctor Steinberg are two more with DRF engagements, and I’d rather wait until after they run, when we’ll know more about ability and targets, as they could both very easily run elsewhere at the Fez.

I can’t see Talk the Talk stepping up in trip at Cheltenham and don’t think Act of Innocence, Sortudo, I’ll Sort That, Shuttle Diplomacy and others have what it takes.

For now, I’m looking at No Drama This End 6.0, Skylight Hustle 13.0 and Ballyfad 15.0 as my plays. The three horses combined offer around 100/30, which looks like good value to me.