Grand National 2026 Review

Part One - Jumping

To win at the punting game, you need to be ahead of the curve, or at the very least keep up. Anyone who has read the “JC” chapter in Cheltenham Man knows how much importance I place on moving with the times. Racing is a moving feast – what worked last year might not work this year.

With the dust settling on this year’s Grand National, it’s time to analyse the outcome and see what lessons, if any, we can take forward to ensure we continue to back the right horses next year.

I’ll spread my thoughts over a few articles, but I wanted to start with jumping, because anyone watching Saturday’s race could have been forgiven for thinking they were watching a renewal from twenty years ago.

The fences claimed 14 horses - seven fallers and seven unseats - accounting for over 40% of the field. This came as something of a surprise, given that the modifications before the 2024 renewal appeared to have made the fences easier to negotiate. In the previous two renewals, the total number of falls and unseats was four and five, respectively.

What happened this year? I wish I knew. My first thought was to look at the figures for the other two races over the National fences: the Topham and the Foxhunters’. In 2025, there were five F/URs across the two races. The same was true this year, with five (plus a couple of BDs). So, there was nothing to suggest the fences had become harder to jump. Nor were there any “incidents” in this year’s National that caused several horses to depart at the same time.

Speed and ground conditions don’t appear to have played any significant part – the race was slower than last year’s and run on similar ground. The quality of the horses taking part was much the same, too.

I’m a big believer that “variance” explains more than some people – especially trend devotees – care to admit. Yes, 14 is a big increase over 4 and 5, but what if the expected number after the recent changes is 8 (the current average since 2024)? Then it looks more like a couple of quite low years, followed by a high year this time around.

Perhaps we can at least put to bed the idea of the Grand National being a “glorified staying hurdles race” – no hurdles race averages a 23% rate (23 F/URs from the 100 runners since 2024) of falls and unseats. That rate is also high for a chase, come to that. Perhaps we need to row back a little on the idea that jumping no longer really matters?

It's confusing because I am Maximus has very nearly won the last three renewals, and is far from a natural jumper. Perhaps he’s just a freak. In his defence, despite having his own way of getting from A to B, he’s never actually fallen in his career. His jumping may not always be efficient, but it at least appears safe.

Good jumpers like Panic Attack and Gerri Colombe can’t get around, but I Am Maximus can. Make it make sense! How are we supposed to work out which horses to put a line through because of jumping doubts when we have facts like that to contend with? At least you could argue Jagwar’s non-completion was consistent with his recent jumping efforts.

It’s a head scratcher. Horses like Panic Attack, Gerri Colombe and Mr Vango had never previously fallen. There doesn’t appear to be any obvious metric we can use to weed out the horses likely to struggle over the fences.

It’s disappointing, but I don’t think there is much we can learn from the unusually high number of fallers and unseats this year. I noted that both cross-country horses, Final Orders and Favori De Champdou, jumped round safely this year, but on decent spring ground, those types of horses don’t usually have the pace for a modern Grand National.

Perhaps the most important lesson is not to be suckered into taking short prices on any horse, no matter how strong their form claims, when there’s perhaps a 23% chance that it won’t even get round.

This is particularly true regarding the place part of each-way bets on the shorties. If you’re backing a horse at 8-1 on 1,2,3,4,5 1/5 place terms, you’re only getting odds of 8-5 on the place, which may be fine in some races but not those with such a high non-completion rate.

This year’s winner may have been returned at a very short price – largely because of the ripple effect of JP’s £100k bet shortly before the race - but three of the casualties were sent off at under 10-1. Food for thought.

It may pay to be wary of backing anything at single-figure prices going forward. It’ll be interesting to see how many fallers we get next year. My guess would have to be around 8 – the average of the last three years. What else can you assume?