Why blind faith in trends is a losing bet - and other golden rules for picking winners at Cheltenham

The pro punter with part two of his list of Cheltenham Festival dos and don'ts

Ask anyone over 40 and they’ll tell you that time seems to pass more quickly as the years go by. The interval between Christmases already feels like six months to me. I dread to think what it will feel like if I live to David Attenborough’s age. He probably doesn’t bother to take the decorations down.

It may have been a week since I signed off by saying I’d return with more Cheltenham Festival dos and don’ts – this time focusing on the tricky bit, selecting the right horses – but it’s passed in a flash. I’m wondering if the half-cup of coffee on my writing desk is still warm from last week. · Cheltenham Festival dos and don’ts - how to get your punting strategy spot on for the biggest betting week of the year

The thing about time is it doesn’t stand still; it’s got places to be, and what worked in the past won’t necessarily work in the future when it comes to selecting the right horses to back at Cheltenham. Take the open handicaps: they used to be won by seasoned handicappers, then the novices took over, and now we’re in an era where novices need to tick a few boxes just to be allowed to enter. Who knows how that’s going to work out? Last year, it was tied at 4-4.

Racing is a moving feast; to make a proper go of winning at the game, you need to be up with the pace, if not a step ahead. That’s my beef with following trends: they look at what’s happened in the past and use it to predict the future. That’s all well and good if nothing ever changes, but the only thing that never changes is change itself.

If you can identify a sensible reason for a trend and that reason is still valid today, then great, you might have found yourself an edge. But blind adherence to trends is just another way to the punting poorhouse. There’s a don’t to kick things off. How about a do?

Do look for fresh angles, especially when you’re puzzled by a result. It’s said you learn more from your mistakes than your successes, and I couldn’t agree more.

For years, I struggled with the Kim Muir Chase. Horses were regularly backed into what seemed absurdly short prices and, what’s more, they were winning. Not only was I not backing them, but I was laying some of them. I couldn’t understand why these heavily backed horses were doing so well; they weren’t even proven over staying trips, yet they were being backed as if their stamina were assured.

The penny eventually dropped; age is a terrible thing. The fact they weren’t proven over the trip was precisely why they were winning. The Kim Muir is a handicap. These horses needed a staying trip to show their best form over fences, as suggested by their hurdles form or Dosage Index figures. Why reveal your hand? Campaign them over intermediate distances to keep the handicapper sweet, then unleash them over their optimal trip on the big day with the sort of handicap mark that sees them sent off at 13-8 in a 22-runner field.

Milan Native in 2020, Mount Ida in 2021, Mister Coffey in 2022, and best of all, Inothewayurthinkin in 2024 – all horses who hadn’t set hoof beyond an extended two miles and five furlongs over fences before their big day. Three of them won, and the other, Mister Coffey, would have won if he weren’t Mister Coffey.

Last season, the horse who looked to have the right profile was Johnnywho. While he was proven over three miles as a hurdler, he had been kept to intermediate trips as a chaser, except for a puzzling effort at Windsor over three miles, where he finished last of three after being heavily eased – a run that certainly didn’t give the handicapper any rope to hang him over staying trips. I felt as if I’d finally got my head around the Kim Muir and backed the horse accordingly.

Daily Present (right) narrowly denies Johnnywho in the Kim Muir - a painful reverse for Moray SmithCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

I was in a Coral shop in Paddington when he made the mistake that cost him the race at the last. It was the same shop I’d been in four hours earlier, when Sixandahalf had also snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. I had plenty on that one at 16-1 ante-post and a great position on Johnnywho as well. I won’t be watching any races in that shop again. Heads up: the manager doesn’t approve of bad language.

The next one is more contentious, but I can only speak from my own experience: don’t always assume that a sizeable weight turnaround will reverse finishing positions.

Big Buck’s got me started on this back in 2009, when he gave Punchestowns, the favourite for the World Hurdle, a four-length beating in the Cleve Hurdle while receiving 8lb. Bookmakers presumably took the time-honoured view that 1lb of weight equates to one length and assumed that Punchestowns would have his revenge at level weights. I wasn’t so sure. I believe the best horses find a way to win. Big Buck’s went on to win again in March at 6-1, beating Punchestowns, who was sent off at 100-30, by a length and three-quarters.

It's surprising how often a result that initially seems unreliable becomes more understandable over time. When Golden Ace won the 2024 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, many viewed it as a fluke, but nearly two years later she’s still rated higher than Jade De Grugy. Brighterdaysahead may now be 7lb higher, but the 2024 result makes sense if Gordon Elliott's mare is a lesser horse over Cheltenham’s undulations.

Last season, Transmission finished just under three lengths behind Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham in December before reopposing in the National Hunt Chase on 4lb better terms. They were sent off joint-favourites, but Haiti Couleurs held sway again, even extending his advantage. Stumptown did the same to Latenightpass in the Cross Country Chase despite the weights suggesting they would swap places.

It's too early to know where to apply this line of thinking to this year’s festival, but it’s something I have in mind for when Honesty Policy next faces Impose Toi. Although weight isn’t a factor, there’s a common belief that Honesty Policy will reverse the form through better fitness and the extra experience gained in the Long Walk Hurdle. We’ll find out soon enough, but given their current prices, I know which of the two I’d rather back when they take on Teahupoo and Bob Olinger in March. The best horses find a way to win.

Impose Toi (right) beats Honesty Policy (centre) at Ascot and has every chance of doing the same in the Stayers' Hurdle at CheltenhamCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Next: do try to keep up to date with all the news and opinions as best you can. Not everyone has the luxury of time, but seize every opportunity to study form, watch replays, read articles and listen to podcasts. If you’re betting in markets where others know more than you, what chance do you have? Most importantly, keep an eye on trainer comments and stable tours, because you need to be pretty sure you’ve chosen the right race for your selection before parting with any ante-post cash.

Cheltenham Festival form is worth its weight in gold. Hopefully, this isn’t news to you, but it needs repeating until you’re sick of hearing it. Last year, eight races were won by horses returning to the scene of their greatest triumphs. Another two were won by runners-up at a previous festival.

The festival provides a unique test. Not only do horses need to possess talent, they also need to handle the undulations, the uphill finish and the intense atmosphere. They’re also very likely to have been trained with this one day in mind – connections have had a taste of glory and, understandably, they want more. It’s one trend I’m happy to get behind.

Ultimately, there’s no substitute for hard work. You should aim to produce your own set of prices for any race that you want to bet in. You can then bet and trade accordingly, confident that every bet is, in your opinion, offering good value. If you’re right more than wrong, you’ll come out ahead. It’s that simple.

To produce your prices, you’ll need three things: information, experience and a feel for probability. The first two are achievable with time and effort, but it’s the last one that separates occasional

winners from habitual winners, and unfortunately it can’t easily be taught. Do you fancy a test to see how you shape up?

Imagine a race between two counters: red and blue. Roll a dice. If you roll a one, two, three or four, the red counter advances one step; if you roll a five or six, the blue counter advances one step. The first to advance three steps wins. Simple enough. Hopefully, you agree that red is the favourite, but how many times in 100 games would you expect red to win? What’s your gut feel? Have a try before you go any further and I’ll reveal the answer shortly. If you’re close, who knows, you might have half a chance with your set of prices.

So, no magic formula, unfortunately. Just the usual hard work and a little flair.

Next week I’ll be looking ahead to the DRF. Dublin is a place I’ve loved ever since my first visit as a young lad, in the year Maggie Thatcher came to power – and that’s also your answer to how many times the red counter is expected to win in 100 games!