The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

I’ve noticed something interesting in the chasing division. Conventional wisdom says horses tend to go up in distance as they mature, but try telling that to Cheltenham’s three blue-ribband chases! In the last ten renewals, six horses aged nine or older have won the Queen Mother Champion Chase, four have won the Ryanair Chase, but only one has won the Gold Cup – Don Cossack in 2016. The stats suggest that conventional wisdom has things back to front. The Gold Cup appears to be a race for younger horses, while the Champion Chase suits older horses. Why?

Are the demands of staying chases such that staying at the top becomes progressively more difficult as miles in the legs accumulate? Henrietta Knight certainly thought so. At the turn of the century, she masterminded Best Mate’s route to three consecutive Gold Cups - the last two off two-race preps. She took plenty of flak at the time, but who’s arguing now? Willie Mullins took the same approach with Al Boum Photo, who won his two Gold Cups after a total of just three prep races.

Turning to the Champion Chase, recent renewals have shown the importance of sound jumping. It’s no good being the fastest horse if the fences are getting in the way. Older horses may have more miles in their legs, but crucially, they’ve also jumped more fences at speed. If we’re on the right track, we would expect the Ryanair Chase, with its intermediate distance, to sit somewhere in the middle, which is exactly what it does, according to the last ten renewals. Maybe we’re on to something. What about the hurdlers? In the last ten renewals, no horse aged nine or older has won the Champion Hurdle, one has won over the intermediate distance of the Aintree Hurdle, and two have tasted success in the Stayers’ Hurdle. A small sample, admittedly, but at least in line with conventional wisdom.

So far, so interesting, but how does this help us do something useful, like winning money from the bookmakers? Let’s look ahead to the big three chases at next year’s Cheltenham Festival, starting with the big one, the Gold Cup, and the 2025 winner, Inothewayurthinkin, whose victory at Cheltenham merited an RPR of 182. Only three other staying chasers have achieved anything like that level of form among his rivals for next year’s crown: Galopin Des Champs (183), Fact to File (177), and Fastorslow (175). While Inothewayurthinkin will be an 8-year-old next year, Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow will both be ten, and according to the statistics, too old to win a modern-day Gold Cup. What about Fact to File? He’ll be nine next year and may also be too old. He reminds me of another Willie Mullins horse, Allaho, who also flirted with two miles and three miles but dominated the two-and-a-half-mile division. Inothewayurthinkin and Fact to File both posted figures good enough to rank 3rd in the last 10 renewals, making them above-average winners. In the same ownership, and with their age profiles, surely it makes sense to split such prodigious talents next March?

That’s the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase sorted – repeat winners in both races. What about the Champion Chase? Can Marine Nationale (173) complete a hat-trick for the class of 2025? In March, he became one of only eight horses to win the race before turning nine, since the days of Master Minded in 2008. Half of those went on to win the race again. His victory was more in line with an average renewal, but he could still be improving. Looking at his market rivals for next March, the mercurial Sir Gino needs to prove he has recovered from a serious ligament infection, while Jonbon, and the clumsy-jumping Majborough are likely to go up in trip. That leaves Il Etait Temps (175), who looked like an improved horse in April’s Celebration Chase, and Kalif Du Berlais (154), who has a lot to find. Perhaps Il Etait Temps will emerge as the biggest threat to Marine Nationale defending his title, but I’m not convinced that Cheltenham is his course. So, I’m backing Marine Nationale to complete a unique hat-trick for the reigning champions.

Aside from Sir Gino, last season’s novice chasers look a modest bunch. Lecky Watson’s (160) win in the Brown Advisory was rated the lowest among the last ten renewals. The highest-rated two-mile novice chaser, Majborough (164), has yet to show he can jump well enough to challenge for top honours, and his best RPR as a novice chaser ranks a modest 8th in the last ten Arkles.

That covers the science, but what about the art? What prices should we be willing to accept to part with our hard-earned cash? Most punters understand that value is king - unless bets offer good value, we won’t

succeed in the long run. But how do we know if a bookmaker’s price offers good value? That’s where the art comes in. Unfortunately, it’s not something you can teach or learn, but all successful punters have it, whether they realise it or not.

I rate Inothewayurthinkin a 2/1 chance for the Gold Cup, so the 4/1 currently available looks generous.

If he was sure to target the race, I would make Fact to File a 9/4 favourite in the Ryanair Chase. Factoring in a 75% chance of that eventuality, lengthens my price to around 3/1 - uncomfortably close to the 3/1 available, so the smart way to bet on Fact to File in the Ryanair is to link bets to Inothewayurthinkin in the Gold Cup. After all, he’s one of that horse’s main rivals in the Gold Cup, and his absence would considerably ease his main rival’s task.

I would price Marine Nationale at 7/2 in the Champion Chase. I usually need a 20% margin above my price to be tempted in, so the 4/1 currently available is just a touch too short. The ante-post markets seem to be squeezed tighter every year, don’t they?