2025 King George VI Chase
Time and perspective may show that last season’s renewal, where Banbridge caught Il Est Francais after the final flight, was another sub-standard renewal of this race. Truth be told, it’s been a bit of a let-down since Clan Des Obeaux’s second win in 2019.
Thankfully, that looks set to change this year, when we have two of the top four staying chasers entered, along with up-and-coming talents like Jango Baie and The Jukebox Man. With last year’s 1-2 also in the mix, we’ll have a chance to see how last year’s renewal measures up against the class of 2025.
One of those top four chasers is Fact To File, and the uncertainty over his appearance makes betting on the race difficult. Owner JP McManus does not need to sing along to Willie Mullins' song sheet, which says that Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File will be kept apart at Christmas. All JP cares about is his own horse, and quite right too. He has Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin for the Savills Chase, so is understandably less enthusiastic than Willie to send Fact To File there too.
I don’t think there is any chance that Gaelic Warrior will be switched to the Savills Chase – his record at Leopardstown is woeful, and the King George was mentioned as his early-season target before the season even got underway. So, where does that leave Fact To File? Discussions will take place between the owner and the trainer. Who knows how they will go, but JP is probably Willie’s only owner who can pull rank if they butt heads. Memories of Vautour and Rich Ricci still darken my thoughts now and then!
Fastorslow’s connections are likely to do what Slade Steel’s connections did regarding Ballyburn before winning the 2024 Supreme … they will run in whichever one of the Savills or the King George that Willie’s horse doesn’t. Grangeclare West is likely to stay in Ireland, but Heart Wood is another who may or may not make the journey.
The best approach is to price up two separate markets to 100%, one with Fact To File and one without, and use these two markets to produce a third market that reflects the likelihood of Fact To File running. I’m going to assume that’s 60% at the moment:
With Fact To File:
Gaelic Warrior 9/4
Jango Baie 4/1
Fact To File 4/1
The Jukebox Man 9/1
Djelo 12/1
Banbridge 20/1
Il Est Francais 25/1
Kolicko 66/1
Heart Wood* 66/1
Without Fact To File:
Gaelic Warrior 15/8
Jango Baie 3/1
The Jukebox Man 7/1
Djelo 10/1
Banbridge 16/1
Il Est Francais 20/1
Fastorslow 20/1
Kolicko 50/1
Heart Wood* 50/1
* assuming 50% chance of running in the KG
Fact To File 60% to run:
Gaelic Warrior 85/40
Jango Baie 7/2
Fact To File 15/2
The Jukebox Man 8/1
Djelo 11/1
Banbridge 18/1
Il Est Francais 23/1
Fastorslow 50/1
Kolicko 60/1
Heart Wood 60/1
Once I get news on Fact To File’s participation or otherwise, I will immediately use the relevant set of prices above to trade and bet. Until then, the third column is the one I’ll use. It’s annoyingly close to the current Betfair prices for a lot of the runners, but it’s a mature market, so that’s to be expected, I suppose.
Anyone wanting to take an ante-post punt on Fact To File in the King George could do worse than double it up with their fancy in the Savills, as they’ll be getting a contingent double of sorts.